Some monthly production statistics

The start of a new month brings with it a quick look at the amounts of different fuel sources being produced in Russia and the amount of oil produced in Mexico, since it is the changes in these supplies that may have significant impact on European and American consumer interests. The current figures can be compared with last month’s numbers and to some degree with the situation this time last year. The latest data from Russia is from Thursday of last week. In a simple list,:

Total production of Crude and other liquids is at 9.765 mbd , this is up 2.5% on last month, but down 0.3% on this time last year. The greatest contributor remains Rosneft, whose production remained stable at 2.25 mbd, though down 1.2% on the year, and Lukoil at 1.87 mbd which is up 1% on the month, but 4% on the year.

Russia refined 4.49 mbd of crude, down some 6.4% over the month, and down 4.2% over the year, so this may be some temporary abberation (the numbers can fluctuate quite a bit, and I am just taking a snapshot of one day a month – but we will see as the numbers accumulate over the year).

In terms of natural gas, the total was 1.71 billion cu m (bcm) of which Gazprom produced 1.38 bcm. The volumes were down 13% overall and 16% for Gazprom over the year, with the monthly change being down 5.4% for the total, and down 5.8% for Gazprom. (There may still be some reduced shipments going into Eastern European countries such as Poland).

Daily coal production has risen to 880,000 tons, up 12.8% on the year, but down 11% over the month.

Looking at the amount of power generated: nuclear is 469 million kWh, down 1.9% over the year, but up 3.5% over the month. Hydro is at 470.5 million kWh, up 2.1% on the month, and up 11% on the year. Thermal (coal, oil and natural gas combined) power generation was 2,020 million kWh down 11.2% on the year, and down 5.3% on the month. This could well reflect the drop in production from Russian industry being reflected in lower power needs.

The other country whose production gives some concern (we will, for now assume that OPEC can raise their production as needed over this next year) is Mexico. With the falling production from Cantarell it is worth noting that Mexican production was at 3.05 mbd in January down 7.4% over the figures from a year ago, and off 1% from the December number. Marine production (in which province Cantarell lies) was down 11.3% y-o-y and 1.5% for the month. Mexico exported 1.223 mbd to the Americas, up from 1.14 mbd in December, and up from the 1.216 mbd of last January. (Overall exports were however down, the loser being Europe).

Since the whole world is seeing the impacts of the recession, it is impossible to tell how much of the changes were due to a reduction in demand, relative to the capacity of the industry to produce. Even the natural gas figures may have been influenced by political decisions.